Thailand’s Economy Projected to Grow 2.0% in 2026 Amid 10-Year Investment Peak

Brickinfo News Agency – The Office of the National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC) has reported that the Thai economy expanded by 2.4% in 2025, supported by a significant surge in total investment which hit a 10-year high. Looking forward to 2026, the agency forecasts a growth range of 1.5% to 2.5%, with a central estimate of 2.0%. This outlook is driven by steady private consumption, an increase in government budget frameworks, and a recovering tourism sector. However, the economy faces a shift from the high-export growth seen in 2025 to a more moderated pace, alongside efforts to manage public debt and accelerate trade negotiations.

The economic performance in the fourth quarter of 2025 showed a notable acceleration, growing by 2.5% compared to 1.2% in the previous quarter. A primary driver was total investment, which jumped 8.1%, marking the highest growth rate since 2016. Private investment rose by 6.5%, fueled by machinery and a recovery in the construction sector for the first time in seven quarters. Government investment also rebounded sharply by 13.3% due to economic stimulus measures. Meanwhile, private consumption grew by 3.3%, particularly in the durable goods category, as consumers accelerated electric vehicle purchases before the expiration of the initial EV 3.0 support measures.

In the external sector, 2025 saw export values reach $335,061 million, a 12.7% increase. However, the NESDC notes that agricultural exports faced challenges due to intense global price competition, while industrial goods like computers and telecommunications equipment performed well. For 2026, export growth is expected to slow to 2.0% as global trade dynamics shift. The tourism sector, while recovering, saw a slight decline in international arrivals in late 2025, but total tourism revenue for the full year 2025 still managed to reach 2.64 trillion baht, a 1.2% increase from the previous year.

Regarding the outlook for 2026, the NESDC emphasized the importance of maintaining a stable economic and political atmosphere following the elections. The agency highlighted the need to fast-track the Fiscal Year 2027 budget to sustain domestic demand. Key policy priorities include driving actual investment from previously issued promotion certificates through the “Thailand FastPass” system and improving digital licensing platforms. Furthermore, the government aims to finalize Free Trade Agreement (FTA) negotiations with the European Union and South Korea to mitigate risks from international trade barriers.

Financial stability remains a focus, with public debt standing at 65.6% of GDP at the end of 2025. The NESDC urged for strict fiscal discipline and a reform of the tax system to reduce the public debt burden. On the social front, while unemployment remained low at 0.81% for the year, the agency underscored the necessity of addressing household debt. Strategies include proactive debt restructuring under the “Close Debt Fast, Move Forward” initiative and improving access to liquidity for SMEs that have the potential but lack credit opportunities.